Weekly Commentary May 28th, 2013

The Markets

Like guests feeling the first rain drops at a Memorial Day barbeque, markets responded uncertainly to Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke’s congressional testimony and the newly released Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes last week.

Generally, both Bernanke’s comments and the FOMC minutes reiterated what the Fed has been saying for some time. According to FOMC minutes, quantitative easing – the Fed’s purchase of $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities and $45 billion of longer-term Treasury securities each month – will continue “until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability.” The minutes also suggested the Fed’s other method for stimulating the economy – low interest rates – “will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens.”

Initially, stock market investors responded positively to these messages. On Wednesday morning, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Indices gained more than 1 percent. By afternoon, the indices had lost more than 1 percent each. By week’s end, the indices had experienced their first weekly losses since late April.

Uncertainty about the future of quantitative easing affected bond and gold markets, as well. By Friday, the yield on benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note had risen above 2 percent, reaching its highest level in two months. Gold prices firmed during the week.

Fed policymakers will meet twice before Labor Day – in mid-June and late-July. The minutes of those meetings will be released three weeks after each meeting. If markets respond as they did last week, investors may experience a bumpy ride this summer.

 

the taxman cometh. If your ears are burning, it may be because the people who run state and federal governments have been discussing where to find revenue to fill budget shortfalls. Currently, the solutions they’re pursuing focus primarily on U.S.-based companies.

As corporate profits have increased, the tax strategies employed by U.S.-based multinational corporations have come under Internal Revenue Service scrutiny. According to The Economist, America’s corporate profits are at an all-time high. Yet, corporate contributions to Uncle Sam’s coffers have been far lower than they were in the past. In 1947, corporate profits were about 10 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and corporate taxes were about 4 percent. Last year, corporate profits were about 12 percent of GDP and corporate taxes less than 2 percent.

The United States government recently called a U.S.-based multinational to task because it had employed “a complex web of offshore entities to pay little or no tax on tens of billions of dollars it had earned outside America.” The company responded to the inquiry by pointing out it paid billions of dollars in American taxes during fiscal 2012 and was probably one of the biggest corporate taxpayers in the country.

Internet retailers and catalogue companies also are becoming part of the hunt for tax revenue. Under current law, states cannot compel out-of-state retailers to collect the sales and use taxes owed by residents and businesses. It is up to individuals to declare and pay those taxes. The National Conference of State Legislatures estimates the inability to have Internet businesses collect taxes resulted in about $23 billion in lost tax revenue during 2012. In an effort to help states collect these taxes, Congress created the Marketplace Fairness Act. If it becomes law, states that adopt a simplified tax code will be able to enforce sales and use tax collection by Internet retailers and catalogue companies. The Act was passed by the Senate early in May.

 

Weekly Focus – Think About It

“Adversity is the diamond dust Heaven polishes its jewels with.”

--Thomas Carlyle, Scottish philosopher

Weekly Commentary May 20th, 2013

The Markets

Much like elementary school children trying to capture the attention of someone they have a crush on, the American economy sent lots of mixed signals last week.  

Conflicting reports emerged about consumer sentiment during the week. The Conference Board, a non-profit research organization, reported consumers remained somewhat pessimistic about the direction of the economy. In contrast, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey rose to a six-year high, according to ABC News. The Index moved from 76.4 in April to 83.7 in May indicating consumers are feeling more confident about the economy.

On the employment front, more people filed first-time unemployment claims last week than had filed the week before; however, claims remained well below the levels experienced from mid-2008 to 2011. Additionally, data shows during the past six months the average length of unemployment has dropped, the number of hours worked has risen, and earnings have increased.

Messages from the Federal Reserve were more consistent than economic data. Members of the Philadelphia, Dallas, and San Francisco Federal Reserve Banks suggested it may be time to begin slowing quantitative easing. Currently, the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing efforts have it buying about $85 billion of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities each month as it works to support the economy. According to reports, quantitative easing could slow to a stop during 2013. Fed comments helped push yields on 10-year Treasuries higher for the week.

Stock markets remained undaunted by uncertain economic conditions and the prospect that quantitative easing may end soon. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Indices surged to new highs last week. Markets rallied across the pond, as well, with some major European stock indices reaching levels last seen five or more years ago, according to Reuters.

 

Heuristic is just another name for a shortcut. When academics look to psychology and economics to explain why people make financial decisions the way they do, it’s called behavioral finance. This field of study describes a phenomenon called “heuristics.” In general, a heuristic is a mental shortcut that lets someone solve a problem using a rule of thumb. Heuristics may be handy, but they may not take you exactly where you mean to go. For example, consider some of the shortcuts investors have developed to predict the direction of the stock market. You may have heard of the:

• Hemline Index: In 1926, George Taylor suggested the length of women’s skirts was a useful market predictor. Short hemlines were a positive predictor while long hemlines were a negative predictor. Taylor later became Professor of Industrial Relations at Wharton and became known as the father of American Arbitration.

• Super Bowl Indicator: Washington and Lee professor George Kester introduced the idea the Super Bowl winner could predict market performance. His theory was the market would move higher for the year when an original National Football League team won the Super Bowl and lower when an original American Football League team won.

• Presidential Election Cycle Theory: The idea behind this gem is the stock market follows a predictable pattern during each American President’s term. The year after an election produces the weakest stock market performance while the third year offers the strongest.

Anyone who remembers The Chicago Daily Tribune’s headline, Dewey Beats Truman, or CNN and Fox News’ headlines indicating the Supreme Court struck down the individual mandate, knows predicting the future can be challenging. In general, it’s a good idea to remember that the drivers of market performance tend to be economic factors, investor sentiment, and company fundamentals.

 

Weekly Focus – Think About It

“The pursuit of truth and beauty is a sphere of activity in which we are permitted to remain children all our lives.”

--Albert Einstein, theoretical physicist

Weekly Commentary May 13th, 2013

The Markets

‘Sell in May and Go Away’ is a trading maxim which, according to Investopedia, encourages an investor to “sells his or her stock holdings in May and get back into the equity market in November...” Traders who adhere to that adage may be pondering averages and exceptions right now. During the first two weeks of the month, the Dow Jones Industrials Average, the Standard & Poor’s 500, and the Russell 2000 Indices all reached new highs. The Dow passed 15,000, the S&P reached 1,600, and the Russell 2000 hit 968.

Bulls are in the majority among investors, although there is some bearish sentiment, according to the Bull and Bear Wise Index. Investors’ changing expectations are reflected in CNNMoney’s Fear & Greed Index which showed investor sentiment has shifted from ‘fear’ one year ago to ‘extreme greed’ last week. The premise of the index, which measures seven indicators, is investors are driven by two emotions: fear and greed. When investors are fearful, stock markets may fall more than they should; when investors are greedy, markets may be pushed higher than they should be.

Investors’ inclination toward stocks may be one of the reasons for declines in the value of gold and commodities last week.

Although there was little of it, economic news generally was positive last week. The U.S. Labor Department announced the number of Americans filing initial claims for jobless benefits dropped unexpectedly. Approximately 323,000 people filed for unemployment benefits which was about the same number that filed each week before the recession started in December 2007. According to Bloomberg, investors took the news as a sign the U.S. economy is improving which helped push yields on 10-year Treasuries higher.

Perceived economic strength in the U.S. caused the U.S. dollar to gain against many of the 16 major world currencies last week, as well as the 24 emerging countries’ currencies tracked by Bloomberg.com.

 

Where will you live during RETIREMENT? As with many of life’s important questions, the answer depends on you and, possibly, your partner or spouse. Before you make a decision and decide to retire to wherever your grandchildren live (or in your favorite vacation spot) you might want to take a moment and consider the tax implications of your decision.

If your grandchildren live in Alaska, Nevada, Wyoming, Mississippi, or Georgia, you’re probably okay. Each year, Kiplinger.com reviews the tax rules of each of the 50 states, giving special consideration to states which offer attractive tax incentives to retirees and then provides a list of those states it deems most tax-friendly for retirees. For 2012, Kiplinger reported the five states listed above were the most tax-friendly. According to the article,

 

“All of these tax havens exempt Social Security benefits from taxation (and some impose no state income tax at all). Many of them exclude government and military pensions from income taxes, and some exempt private pensions, too. A few offer blanket exclusions up to a specific dollar amount of retirement income from a wide variety of sources, which is important if you depend on distributions from IRAs and 401(k) plans rather than traditional pensions. Review all of your sources of income before you decide which state may be the best fit for your retirement home.”

 

Kiplinger.com reported the least tax-friendly states included Connecticut, Vermont, Rhode Island, Montana, and Minnesota, which have one or more of the following:

 

·         Estate or inheritance taxes

·         High property taxes

·         No tax breaks on Social Security benefits

·         No special treatment for various types of retirement income

Source: Kiplinger.com

 

No matter where you decide to settle, it’s important to evaluate all of the factors which may affect your income during retirement.

 

Weekly Focus – Think About It

 

“Every saint has a past and every sinner has a future.”

--Oscar Wilde, Irish writer and poet

 

Weekly Commentary May 6th, 2013

The Markets

Like athletes testing their limits, the Standard & Poor’s 500 and the Dow Jones Industrials Indices both hit new highs last week. The S&P closed the week above the 1,600 level for the first time, while the Dow climbed above the 15,000 mark on Friday before closing lower. Strong corporate earnings, gains in the housing market, and good news from Europe helped support last week’s strong performance.

Corporate earnings season – the period when companies’ managements tell shareholders how well the companies have performed during the previous quarter – is almost over. Seventy-two percent of the companies in the S&P 500 have beaten analysts’ expectations, according to information provided by FactSet and reported on MarketWatch. Since 1994, about 63 percent of companies have beaten expectations on average.

Housing market news was largely positive last week. The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller 20-city index of home prices was up 9.3 percent year-over-year through February which was the largest gain in almost 7 years. Generally, cities that had seen big price declines during the housing crisis realized the biggest gains, including Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Atlanta. Cities experiencing strong jobs growth, such as San Francisco, Seattle, and Dallas, also showed significant price gains.

In Europe, Italy’s elected leaders finally resolved their political impasse and formed a government. The highly-diverse coalition includes a record number of women, as well as Italy’s first non-white minister. The new cabinet was sworn in on Sunday, April 28. On Monday, Italy’s FTSE MIB, an index which reflects the performance of the Italian stock market, the MSCI World Index, and several U.S. stock markets moved higher.

does money buy happiness… or doesn’t it? Many years ago, Richard Easterlin, a Professor of Economics at the University of Southern California, studied the relationship between happiness and money. He found that, over shorter periods of time, happiness and income tend to move in tandem. “Happiness tends to fall in economic contractions and rise in expansions.”

Over longer periods of time, he found satisfaction with life (i.e., happiness) had little relationship to rates of economic growth (i.e., people having more money). The conclusion was once people have enough money to meet basic needs, they are as happy as they are going to be.

A recent paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research, written by economists Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers of the University of Michigan, appears to cast doubt on Easterlin’s happiness-income paradox. The authors relied on data from Gallup polls which asked people throughout the world how much they earned and on which rung of the happiness ladder they were perched. While people in some countries appeared to be happier than people in other countries, everyone – no matter how much money they had – was happier when they had more money.

So, does more money translate into more happiness or doesn’t it?

It may all come down to your definition of happiness. After all, well-being is subjective as Princeton’s Professor of Psychology and Public Affairs, Daniel Kahneman, and its Professor of Economics and International Affairs, Angus Deaton, pointed out in a 2012 paper. The pair evaluated two measures of happiness: life evaluation (satisfaction with your place in the world) and emotional well-being (day-to-day happiness). The researchers found that life evaluation increases steadily with income, while day-to-day happiness maxes out an annual income of $75,000. They concluded “high income buys life satisfaction but not happiness, and low income is associated both with low life evaluation and low emotional well-being.”

 

Weekly Focus – Think About It

“All I ask is the chance to prove that money can't make me happy.”

--Spike Milligan, British comedian