Weekly Commentary April 21st, 2014

The Markets

"Donetsk is a British city! God Save the Queen." In a parody worthy of The Onion, an online poll suggested citizens of the Ukrainian city of Donetsk would like to secede and join Britain. The city, which was founded by Welsh steel worker John Hughes in the 19^th century, has been the site of conflict between pro-government and pro-Russian groups recently.

Ignoring the Donetsk poll, which showed 61 percent of citizens favored accession to Britain, the European Union, the United States, Ukraine, and the Russian Federation reached an agreement on Thursday to “Refrain from any violence, intimidation, or provocative actions… All illegal armed groups must be disarmed; all illegally seized buildings must be returned to legitimate owners; all illegally occupied streets, squares, and other public places in Ukrainian cities and towns must be vacated.” Russia’s Micex index closed higher on the news; however, the gains may be short-lived as pro-Russian separatists refused to comply and continued to occupy government buildings in nine cities and towns in eastern Ukraine (including Donetsk).

Just across the Asian continent, China missed its government’s target for economic growth (7.5 percent) during the first quarter of 2014, although it exceeded the expectations of economists who had estimated growth at 7.2 percent. The country’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 7.4 percent.

In America and across the globe, news of conflict in Ukraine and slowing growth in China were trumped by positive economic data and the Federal Reserve’s reassurance it was committed to keeping interest rates low for some time. The majority of indices tracked and reported by Barron’s International Recap showed gains for the week.

it may not come as a surprise to learn Men and women have different priorities and worries. A recent survey by U.S. Trust found wealthy women – those with $3 million or more in investable assets – have goals similar to those of wealthy men, but they prioritize differently. The survey reported:

“Women create and control an increasing share of wealth and have a powerful economic influence in the workforce and at home – as business owners, executives, investors, philanthropists, consumers, caregivers, and role models for the next generation. They have a distinct perspective and set of behaviors, shaped by their experiences, upbringing, outlook, and goals that uniquely affect their income, financial security, wealth, and wealth planning needs.”

For example, when it comes to investing, almost two-thirds of women surveyed think it’s important to consider the social, political, and/or environmental effects of the companies in which they invest (42 percent of men share this belief). In fact, more than half are willing to accept a lower investment return if they believe the company in which they’re investing has a positive social impact. Close to three-fourths simply don’t want to invest in companies that have negative social or environmental influences.

On the family front, more than a third of women indicated they devote more time to caring for aging parents and other relatives than do their spouses. In some cases, women said care giving has affected their career advancement and/or income levels; however, relatively few have taken time to calculate the monetary value of the time they’ve spent providing care.

A 2013 Congressional Budget Office report estimated the economic value of caregiving for older Americans was about $234 billion in 2011. It arrived at its estimate by multiplying $21 per hour (the average wage of a home health aide in 2011) by 11.2 billion hours of donated care. Despite the cost, or perhaps because they don’t understand it, the vast majority of survey participants had no formal plans in place to provide for family members who might need support.

When it comes to taxes, a lot of people – male and female – are perplexed. Three-fourths of women are unclear about the effects of tax law changes on investments and income (as compared to 62 percent of men). Regardless of confusion, high net worth investors of both men and women felt pursuing higher returns was more important than letting tax matters determine their investment choices.

 

Weekly Focus – Think About It

“My mother said I must always be intolerant of ignorance but understanding of illiteracy. That some people, unable to go to school, were more educated and more intelligent than college professors.”

--Maya Angelou, American author and poet

Weekly Commentary April 14th, 2014

The Markets

If you’re feeling whiplashed from the mid-week collision of good and bad economic news, you’re not alone.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes were released and investors were reassured by what they read. Although the Fed lowered its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth projections for the first half of 2014, the minutes indicated real GDP is expected to grow faster over the next few years than it did last year (FOMC Meeting Minutes, Staff Economic Outlook, paragraph 1). In addition, “to support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy remains appropriate” (FOMC Meeting Minutes, Committee Policy Action, paragraph 2). Reassurance the Fed would not increase the federal funds rate sooner than expected was received with gusto and all three major U.S. stock indices raced ahead finishing the day up more than 1 percent.

On Thursday, good news about the world’s largest economy (United States) ran right into not-so-good news about the world’s second largest economy (China). Economic indicators suggested China’s economy might be slowing faster than anyone expected. MarketWatch reported, “[China’s] Exports fell 6.6% from a year earlier, slower than the more-than-18% tumble in the previous month, but widely missing a Dow Jones survey consensus for a 4.2% gain. Imports were even uglier, plunging 11.3% – more than the 10.1% drop in February – and trailing far behind an expected 2.8% gain.” When trading ended on Friday, the Standard & Poor’s 500 was down 1.8 percent for the year, the Dow was off 3.3 percent, and the NASDAQ had lost 4.2 percent of its value.

When markets get dramatic, it may be a good idea to stay calm and remember one of the most basic tenets of investing: Buy low, sell high.

there’s a new index in town… About five years ago, the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council proposed a new index be developed, one that would “increase the impact that social entrepreneurs, business leaders, and policy makers can have in the world.” The general idea was the new index would measure social progress and spur competition between nations to improve the environment for social innovation in much the way the Global Competitiveness Index assesses the drivers of economic productivity and prosperity and identifies nations that are most competitive.

Just 48 months later, the Social Progress Index (SPI) was born. The beta version of the index debuted in 2013 and focused on measuring the extent to which 50 countries met the non-economic needs of their citizens. The 2014 SPI gauged 54 social, health, and environmental factors across 132 countries, considering only outputs (like literacy) and not inputs (like spending on education). When the numbers were tallied, New Zealand was number one – even though it’s in 25^th place when measured by GDP per person (SPI, pg 62).

According to The Economist, when the results of the SPI are compared with a country’s GDP per person, its value truly becomes apparent. The publication quoted Michael Porter, a professor at Harvard Business School, who said, "There is a view that economic development and social progress go hand in hand. That's true on average, but not in particular." For example, Costa Rica and Iran have similar GDPs, but Iran falls far lower on the scale of social progress. Brazil and Kuwait are about equal in terms of social progress, although Kuwait’s GDP per person is multiples greater than that of Brazil.

So, how did the United States do? We’re in 2nd place for GDP per person and 16th for social progress (SPI, pg 63). A New York Times Op Ed piece summarized the scores like this, “In the Social Progress Index, the United States excels in access to advanced education but ranks 70th in health, 69th in ecosystem sustainability, 39th in basic education, 34th in access to water and sanitation, and 31st in personal safety. Even in access to cellphones and the Internet, the United States ranks a disappointing 23rd, partly because one American in five lacks Internet access.”

Will the United States respond by improving the environment for social innovation as the developers of the index had hoped? Stay tuned. The results of the 2015 SPI will be out in just another year.

 

Weekly Focus – Think About It

“The price of success is hard work, dedication to the job at hand, and the determination that whether we win or lose, we have applied the best of ourselves to the task at hand.”

--Vince Lombardi, former Coach of the Green Bay Packers

Weekly Commentary April 7th, 2014

The Markets

The first quarter of 2014 offered up all the excitement and chills of a thriller. First, stock markets careened like runaway mining cars during January. Next, in her first press conference as new Federal Reserve Chairwoman, Janet Yellen implied the Fed might tighten monetary policy sooner than anyone expected which unsettled markets. Finally, Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula, incurring sanctions from other countries, and tipping its economy further toward recession. As in many thrillers, after some devastation (Russia’s stock market lost billions as capital fled the country), the quarter ended on a more encouraging note with many of the world’s stock markets in positive territory.

Last year was a very, very good year for stock markets in general, thanks to a brightening economic outlook in many parts of the world and the stimulative monetary policies implemented by many countries’ central banks. By December 31, the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index had gained about 29 percent for the year, Japan’s Nikkei was up more than 56 percent, and shares in Europe rose by about 16 percent.

January 2014 was breathtaking, too, but for an entirely different reason. Concerns about global economic growth, company earnings in the United States, and the resilience of emerging countries caused stock markets around the world to give back some of the previous year’s gains. The S&P 500 lost about 3.6 percent, the MSCI World Index lost 3.8 percent, Europe’s Stoxx Index fell 5.1 percent, and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index was down 6.6 percent.

Fortified by largely positive domestic economic data, U.S. stock markets recovered somewhat during February. Regardless, it looked like some major indices were going to finish March in negative territory until the Fed Chairwoman stepped to a microphone on March 31, and told a community development conference in Chicago:

“I think this extraordinary commitment is still needed and will be for some time, and I believe that view is widely shared by my fellow policymakers at the Fed. In this context, recent steps by the Fed to reduce the rate of new securities purchases are not a lessening of this commitment, only a judgment that recent progress in the labor market means our aid for the recovery need not grow as quickly. Earlier this month, the Fed reiterated its overall commitment to maintain extraordinary support for the recovery for some time to come.”

U.S. investors celebrated the idea the Fed would not begin to tighten monetary policy sooner than expected which pushed stocks higher. The S&P 500 finished the quarter with modest gains.

Outside the United States, markets delivered mixed performance during the first quarter. Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain – labeled the PIIGS of Europe because of their economic woes following the financial crisis – delivered strong performance for the quarter.

The Shanghai Composite fell during the first quarter as investors worried China would not hit its growth targets for 2014. The State Council tried to assuage worries about the slowing pace of economic growth by pledging to move forward with approved infrastructure projects.

India was a top performer among emerging markets during the quarter. Stocks rallied as inflation eased, the rupee stabilized, and the country’s current account deficit was brought under better control. Markets also were boosted when foreign investment increased in anticipation of a pro-business government being elected.

As the new quarter began, the European Central Bank flirted with the idea of quantitative easing. Its overtures pleased investors who began to invest in some of Europe’s most indebted nations – countries that had been shunned during the debt crisis. The rally caused yields on Spain’s five-year notes to fall below those of five-year U.S. Treasuries for the first time since 2007, and rates on Italy’s five- and ten-year notes fell to the lowest levels they’ve reached since Bloomberg began tracking the data in 1993.

 

 

is it time to be hopeful about global economic growth? Certified Financial Analysts (CFAs) are more optimistic and confident that both local and global economies may grow this year, according to the 2014 Global Market Sentiment Survey (pg 5). Sixty-three percent of CFA Institute members think the world economy may expand in 2014. That’s a big change from 2013 when only 40 percent were optimistic about global growth prospects (pg 8). Overall, the survey found CFAs think stock markets in the United States, China, Japan, and Germany may offer the best investment opportunities in 2014 (pg 11).

 

Optimism at the local level varies by region. The sharpest turnaround in perspective was among CFAs in Japan – just 11 percent thought their country could experience economic growth last year. This year, 73 percent are optimistic. There was a surge of positivity among CFAs in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA), too. Fifty-six percent have positive expectations for local growth, up from 33 percent last year. In America, 62 percent of CFAs are optimistic about growth compared with 39 percent in 2013, and, in the Asia Pacific region, 69 percent expect to see things improve in 2014 as opposed to 32 percent the previous year (pgs 8-9).

 

Not everyone’s outlook is rosy, however. Chinese CFAs have guarded expectations – just 45 percent expect to see their local economies grow. In Hong Kong, Brazil, and India, CFAs are actually less optimistic than they were last year (pgs 8-9).

 

Survey participants in both emerging and developed markets said one of the biggest risks to local economic growth is political instability. Participants in the United States, India, South Africa, and Brazil – countries that are gearing up for general elections – shared the concern. Other risks that could affect economic growth included the end of quantitative easing and the possibility of a financial bubble developing in local markets (pg 14).

 

Since the report was written in late 2013, CFAs’ optimism may have been buffeted by the ups and downs of the year’s first quarter, but it could prove out over the longer term.

 

Weekly Focus – Think About It

“Education is the most powerful weapon which you can use to change the world.”

--Nelson Mandela, Former President of South Africa