For Sturm und Drang enthusiasts, the third quarter of
2013 held plenty of mayhem and emotion. It began with an overthrow of Egypt’s
democratically-elected government and ended with the United States government
at risk of defaulting on Treasury and government obligations. In between:
Fed officials had
a lot to say.
Like background music that manipulates your emotions, the U.S. Federal
Reserve’s ongoing commentary about potential changes to U.S. monetary policy
affected global stock and bond markets throughout much of the year, and third
quarter was no exception. When the Fed didn’t adjust quantitative easing in
September, markets celebrated. Apparently, they’d lost sight of the fact that
the Fed could decide to taper at its next meeting in October. When reminded of
that fact, markets retreated a bit.
Emerging market
currencies bounced.
Changing expectations for U.S. monetary policy had a profound effect on
emerging markets. Many saw their currencies lose value relative to the U.S.
dollar early in the quarter; some regained it as the quarter progressed. The
most spectacular performance may have been delivered by the Indian rupee which
went from being Asia’s worst performing currency to one of the world’s best in
just five days.
Shibor Shock
startled investors.
During the second quarter, China’s GDP grew at the slowest pace in more than two
decades. As curtains opened on the third quarter, the world saw Chinese banks
staggering as the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor), China’s benchmark
interest rate for an overnight bank lending, exceeded 25 percent. Shibor was
about 2.5 percent early in 2013. The ensuing cash crunch created concern China’s
economy might be in trouble. Apprehension increased when the country’s finance
minister, Lou Jiwei, confounded analysts and investors by suggesting China’s
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate for 2013 might be 6.5 or 7 percent
rather than the official target of 7.5 percent.
Europe may have
turned the corner.
In mid-August, the Eurozone’s GDP grew by 1.1 percent annualized. Markets
breathed a sigh of relief on the tentative hope positive growth signaled a
turning point for the region’s lagging economy which had been in recession for
18-months up to that point.
As the quarter ended, the world’s attention turned to
U.S. fiscal policy as Congress battled over budgets and debt ceilings. Last
week, Congress reached an impasse and the government shutdown partially. If
they are unable to resolve differences, the U.S. government is at risk of
defaulting on its debt; an occurrence experts say could send shockwaves through
the global economy. Needless to say, the new quarter holds endless potential
for storm and stress.
If you’ve been lamenting the state of america, take
heart… We’re
still really good at some things. For example, we have more entrepreneurs – people
who organize and operate businesses – than any other country in the world. About
one of every 13 Americans is an entrepreneur, according to The Economist. That’s almost 7.5 percent of our population! The
Netherlands isn’t too far behind us in the ratio of entrepreneurs to population
at large (about 6.5 percent). However, less than 4 percent of Brits are
entrepreneurs and less than 3 percent of the citizens of France, Sweden, and
Germany are so inclined.
Forbes.com
postulates entrepreneurship in America can be attributed, in part, to the fact
that our country is a magnet for venture capital. During 2012, the U.S. ranked second
overall – ahead of Sweden and behind Israel – in venture-backed capital as a
percentage of GDP, according to The Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development (OECD). Also, we value the entrepreneurial spirit. Let’s face it,
Americans love the underdog. We don’t see failure as failure when risk-taking
is involved. We see it more as daring. As Teddy Roosevelt once said:
“It
is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man
stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit
belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust
and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and
again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does
actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great
devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the
end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at
least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those
cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.”
The
Forbes article also pointed to the influence younger generations, specifically
Millennials, are having on our economy. According to CMO.com, Millennials buy
fewer cars, prefer renting to owning, and eat less fast food. They want
transparent workplaces and collaborative work environments. In response to
their preferences, car sharing, media sharing, home and vacation sharing, and
other types of collaborative businesses have been born. Millennials are
creating opportunities for entrepreneurs everywhere!
Weekly Focus – Think
About It
“After
a storm comes a calm.”
--Matthew
Henry, English commentator on the Bible
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