Weekly Commentary May 27th, 2014

The Markets

Alongside the irises, daffodils, tulips, and other perennials that were popping up (in seasonal parts of the United States) last week, there was a lot of talk about the housing market and what its performance means about the state of the economy. Perceptions varied.

The U.S. housing market has showed improvement in recent years; however, sales slowed during 2013 as interest rates and home prices moved higher. Last week’s housing data showed sales of existing homes were up 1.3 percent for April which was lower than expected, but sales of new single-family homes were up more than expected. In addition, the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index showed February housing prices had reached levels last seen in 2004.

According to MarketWatch.com, some big-name investors are worried about the housing market’s recovery because younger investors are not inclined to take on mortgage debt. Others suggest homeownership may drop because people are marrying later. Balancing the naysayers are pundits who believe demand for housing will continue to strengthen. Finally, the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, which were released last week, showed the Fed recognized recovery in the housing sector remained slow, but expects economic activity to expand at a moderate pace:

“Most participants commented on the continuing weakness in housing activity. They saw a range of factors affecting the housing market including higher home prices, construction bottlenecks stemming from a scarcity of labor and harsh winter weather, input cost pressures, or a shortage in the supply of available lots. Views varied regarding the outlook for the multifamily sector, with the large increase in multifamily units coming to market potentially putting downward pressure on prices and rents, but the demand for this type of housing [is] expected to rise as the population ages. A couple of participants noted mortgage credit availability remained constrained and lending standards were tight compared with historical norms, especially for purchase mortgages.”

What are we to make of the conflicting opinions? The housing market is considered to be a leading economic indicator. This means it tends to change direction before the economy changes direction and offers some indication about where the economy may be headed. (It should be noted housing data generally is several months old before it is reported.) Housing is not the only leading indicator. The Conference Board tracks an index of leading economic indicators. For April, its Leading Economic Index® showed improvement for a third consecutive month. It’s a reminder of how important it is to pay attention to the big picture.

the newest european import is the chip and pin card. Discussions about credit and debit card security were heating up even before retailers experienced data breaches last winter. Needless to say, after the breaches and a wealth of media reports touting the fact that Europe, Canada, and most of the rest of the world already have more secure payment systems than the one we use in the United States, interest in replacing our current system increased.

Eighty countries around the world are currently implementing Europay, MasterCard and Visa, or EMV™ technology. In some places, EMV compliance is further along than it is in others. For instance, about 95 percent of point-of-sale credit card machines (aka terminals) in Europe are EMV compliant; 79 percent of terminals in Canada, Latin America, and the Caribbean; 77 percent of terminals in Africa and the Middle East; and 51 percent of terminals in the Asia Pacific region.

Why is a card with a chip and pin better than a card with a magnetic stripe and a signature? One of the primary reasons, according to Forbes, is improved security:

“Most credit cards in the United States operate with a simple magnetic stripe that can be captured and copied relatively easily. Much of the rest of the world uses a small chip on the credit card to validate with a transaction. The chip employs cryptography and a range of other security features and measures that create a multi-layered defense against card fraud. When combined with a Personal Identification Number or PIN code (the sort used on ATM cards), it substantially raises security. Even with just a signature it makes a marked improvement over a simple magnetic stripe.”

The United States, until recently, was the last major market holdout. However, according to current estimates, 60 percent of merchants will have EMV compliant devices by 2015. Check your mail. A new card may be on its way soon.

 

Weekly Focus – Think About It

“Kindness is the language which the deaf can hear and the blind can see.”

--Mark Twain, American writer and humorist

Weekly Commentary May 19th, 2014

The Markets

Americans have long relied on standards and averages to help them gauge the performance of everything from intelligence to athletics to the economy. So far, in 2014, American stock markets have been grinding along without making much progress in either direction and that has left many people looking for guidance about what they can expect in the future.

Last week, a writer at Barron’s enlisted Jeremy Siegel, a finance professor at Wharton, to help explore the question by updating data used in a 2009 article. That piece had looked at the performance of the U.S. stock market over 142 years and found “below-average returns over five- and 10-year periods generally are followed by above-average returns in the next five and 10 years.” In the new article, Siegel and his associates looked at rolling five-, 10-, 20-, and 30-year return periods through the end of 2013 and found:

“For the 60 months ended in April, the compounded annual real return was nearly 17 percent, well above the median 7.17 percent for all five-year periods. (Taxes and investment fees aren't included.) That suggests the next five years could run below the average.

While that might temper bullishness, in the 120-month period ended April, the compounded annual real return was just 5.58 percent, a full percentage point below the 6.64 percent median 10-year annual return for all the periods measured – again, since 1871.”

Despite the mixed signals provided by long-term averages, Siegel told Barron’s “the odds-on bet” is the Dow Jones Industrial Average will hit 18,000 by the end of the year (although there may be corrections along the way). His expectations are interest rates will remain lower than has been suggested and earnings will experience strong growth.

It’s a good idea to take the esteemed professor’s thoughts with a grain of salt. An eight-year study of market pundits found they were right about 47 percent of the time.

the market isn’t the only thing that can put a hitch in your financial plan’s giddy-up. The overall rate of divorce in the United States trended lower between 2000 and 2011 (the latest dates the Centers for Disease Control has made available). In 2000, there were about four divorces or annulments per 1,000 Americans (total population). By 2011 that rate had fallen slightly to 3.6 per 1,000. As they often do, Baby Boomers bucked the trend. The divorce rate for Americans over age 50 has trended higher. The New York Times wrote:

“A half-century ago, only 2.8 percent of Americans older than 50 were divorced. By 2000, 11.8 percent were. In 2011, according to the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey, 15.4 percent were divorced and another 2.1 percent were separated. Some 13.5 percent were widowed.

While divorce rates over all have stabilized and even inched downward, the divorce rate among people 50 and older has doubled since 1990, according to an analysis of census data by professors at Bowling Green State University in Bowling Green, Ohio. That’s especially significant because half the married population is older than 50.”

Anytime you experience a significant life change, such as a divorce late in life, it’s important to let us know. We can offer strategies to help compensate for any cash flow disruption and tactics for managing taxes when splitting large assets, such as qualified retirement plans. In addition, we can help with essential (and often forgotten) steps, including reviewing and revising beneficiary designations (on retirement plans, investment accounts, and insurance policies) as well as modifying powers of attorney, named trustees, and other designations. We also can coordinate our efforts with those of your attorney and/or accountant.

 

Weekly Focus – Think About It

“Good judgment comes from experience, and a lot of that comes from bad judgment.”

--Will Rogers, American humorist and commentator

 

Weekly Commentary May 12th, 2014

The Markets

“Gonna take a sentimental journey…Gonna set my heart at ease…Gonna make a sentimental journey…To renew old memories.” If you’re a fan of Ella Fitzgerald or Frank Sinatra, then you probably recognize these lyrics. Although we rarely think of them as such, the ups and downs of stock and bond markets are sentimental journeys. They reflect the thoughts and attitudes of investors toward particular companies, investments, and markets. Investopedia explains it like this:

“Market sentiment is the feeling or tone of a market, or its crowd psychology, as revealed through the activity and price movement of the securities traded in that market. For example, rising prices would indicate a bullish market sentiment, while falling prices would indicate a bearish market sentiment. Market sentiment is also called "investor sentiment" and is not always based on fundamentals.”

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) measures investor sentiment by polling their membership each week. The long-term average is 39 percent bullish, 30.5 percent neutral, and 30.5 percent bearish. Last week, 28.3 percent of its members were bullish, 28.7 percent were bearish, and 43 percent were neutral.

According to Yahoo! Finance, that’s the highest level of investor neutrality in more than a decade and may indicate a sharp move up or down is coming soon. “Going back to 2005, AAII neutral sentiment has pushed to 38 on four distinct prior occasions… Looking at the S&P 500 a month later showed greater than 4 percent moves each time over the subsequent 30 days.”

The article, which was published last week, failed to mention the AAII neutral sentiment measure has surpassed 38 on eight occasions since the start of 2014. A quick inspection of S&P 500 pricing indicates markets have moved by 1 to 6 percent during the subsequent month (although we are not yet 30 days from some of those dates). Regardless of the number of times investor neutrality has pushed to 38 or above, or the sharpness of the subsequent market moves, not all of those moves have been in the same direction so it’s hard to predict what this bout of neutral sentiment may indicate.

double, double, toil, and trouble… During the twentieth century, the world’s population doubled not once, but twice. While it is not expected to double again in this century, according to The Economist, the number of older people is expected to double. By 2035, 13 percent of the world’s population – about 1.1 billion people – will be age 65 or older. Assuming no major diseases, disasters, or world wars, demographers at the United Nations predict the global population will reach nine billion by 2045. That’s a lot of people!

Demographic changes are likely to have a powerful effect on global economies. In the United States, the leading edge of the Baby Boom generation is entering retirement. According to National Geographic:

“The end of a baby boom can have two big economic effects on a country. The first is the “demographic dividend” – a blissful few decades when the boomers swell the labor force and the number of young and old dependents is relatively small and there is thus a lot of money for other things. Then the second effect kicks in: The boomers start to retire. What had been considered the enduring demographic order is revealed to be a party that has to end. The sharpening American debate over Social Security and last year’s strikes in France over increasing the retirement age are responses to a problem that exists throughout the developed world: how to support an aging population.”

The old-age dependency ratio, which compares the number of older people (above age 64) in a country to the working population (people aged 15 to 64), was 20:100 in the United States during 2012. By 2035, the United Nations predicts the ratio will be 44:100. How will our aging population affect economic growth? Some economists believe economic growth will slow in countries with high ratios; others say that older, well-educated people will work longer and retire later so aging will have little effect. A third group anticipates persistent economic stagnation. So, what can we expect? It all depends on “changes in the size of the workforce; changes in the rate of productivity growth; and changes in the pattern of savings.” Stay tuned!

 

Weekly Focus – Think About It

“It seems essential, in relationships and all tasks, that we concentrate only on what is most significant and important.”

--Soren Aabye Kierkegaard, Danish philosopher and theologian

Weekly Commentary May 5th, 2014

The Markets

Sometime this year, you may have the opportunity to experience an event that’s even more rare than a lunar or solar eclipse – an economic eclipse. The United States has had the world’s largest economy since we surpassed Britain back in 1872, but our economy is about to be overshadowed by China’s.

A lot of folks were anticipating an economic eclipse sometime around the end of this decade. As it turns out, the event horizon may be much, much shorter. Last week, The World Bank released its International Comparison Program (ICP) report. Every six years, in an effort to measure the real size of the world economy, the ICP surveys countries and measures their relative economic might. The ICP report was the final analysis of data collected during 2011. It found, at that time, the U.S. had the world’s biggest economy. It also established that China’s economy had grown much faster than ours between 2005 and 2011. China’s economic growth has continued to exceed that of the United States. As a result, China’s economy is expected to eclipse that of the United States during 2014. The U.S. economy will be the second largest and behind us will be India. The ICP also noted that:

·         The six largest middle-income economies (China, India, Russia, Brazil, Indonesia, and Mexico) account for 32.3 percent of world Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

·         The six largest high-income economies (United States, Japan, Germany, France, United Kingdom, and Italy) account for 32.9 percent of world GDP

·         Asia and the Pacific, including China and India, account for 30 percent of world GDP

·         The European Union and countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) account for 54 percent of world GDP

·         Latin America comprises 5.5 percent of world GDP (excluding Mexico, which is an OECD country, and Argentina which did not participate in the ICP survey)

Some people are unsettled by the news. Among them, apparently, are members of China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). According to The Washington Post, the NBS expressed reservations about the study’s methodology and did not endorse the results as official statistics. As with solar and lunar eclipses, the event may be notable, but its effects are unclear.

So, you’ve heard U.S. companies are fabulously profitable and sitting on record piles of cash. It’s true. According to Moody’s Investors Service, non-financial U.S. companies had hoards of cash at the end of 2013 – about $1.64 trillion. That’s about 12 percent more than the previous year’s record-setting $1.46 trillion. Technology, healthcare/ pharmaceutical, consumer product, and energy companies held the most cash.

Why are profits at U.S. companies so high? The Economist offered several possible explanations:

1) Corporate executives favored capital and not labor in recent years. An expert cited by The Economist suggested, “…Had pay kept pace with productivity in recent years, profit margins would be around their historic average, not close to a 50-year high;” 2) When the U.S. dollar loses value, which it has, the foreign earnings of American companies get a lift; and 3) Firms have limited their capital expenditures on equipment, software, and other items. As a result, depreciation charges have fallen making companies look more profitable.

Why aren’t companies spending? It has a lot to do with overseas profits and tax rates, according to The Wall Street Journal’s MoneyBeat. It reported, “Growth in the cash stockpiles, however, came largely from operations overseas. Instead of bringing that money back to the U.S. and paying taxes as high as 35% upon repatriation, companies borrowed money in the U.S. bond market, where interest rates were historically low. The report calls that strategy ‘a form of synthetic cash repatriation.’”

The stark reality is companies are profitable, but they’re also sporting a lot of debt. During the past three years, corporate debt has risen by $3.67 for every $1 of cash growth, according to a report from Standard & Poor’s Rating Services which was cited by The Wall Street Journal. That’s okay when interest rates are low, but may not prove to be so great when interest rates in the United States move higher.

 

Weekly Focus – Think About It

“I never considered a difference of opinion in politics, in religion, in philosophy, as cause for withdrawing from a friend.

--Thomas Jefferson, American President