The
second quarter offered a level of drama often found in homes with teenagers.
When
investors realized their good friend, quantitative easing, might have an
earlier-than-expected curfew, they threw a hissy fit that resounded through
global markets. The outburst interrupted the trajectory of Standard &
Poor’s 500 Index, which finished June lower after hitting record highs in May. As
stocks fell, yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury bond hit a 22-month high.
Higher treasury yields and a strengthening greenback
proved attractive to investors and capital flowed out of emerging markets
during the quarter. As interest rates moved higher, the cost of borrowing rose
sharply in many emerging countries. That may impede economic growth, which has slowed
already, in many developing countries. Economies in emerging Asia, Latin
America, and Europe grew by about 4 percent on average year-on-year during the
first quarter as compared to 6.4 percent on average during the past decade.
When compared to growth rates in developed countries,
such as the European Union (EU), that’s still a pretty attractive growth rate. The
EU has suffered seven consecutive quarters of recession. It’s hard to say the recovery
is going well, but experts are hopeful because the Spanish economy is
contracting at a slower rate, Italian business activity isn’t declining as fast
as it once did, the French downturn is moderating, and the German economic growth
is in positive numbers.
It’s a different story in the United States. By the end
of second quarter, economists were predicting 2014 could prove to be the best
year for U.S. economic growth since 2005. The
Wall Street Journal’s monthly survey
found that, “Economists… expect gross domestic product to expand at a 2.3
percent annual pace this year and 2.8 percent next year. The Federal Reserve
edged up 2014 growth forecasts to between 3 and 3.5 percent, from a March
estimate of 2.9 to 3.4 percent.” Encouraging economic signs include:
·
Housing market
vigor:
Experts say housing market strength will be critical to economic performance in
the second half of the year.
·
Employment gains: Unemployment has dropped from double-digits
to 7.6 percent, although there are still about 2.4 million fewer jobs than there were before
the recession.
·
Confident
consumers:
After years of paring spending and paying down debt, Americans are feeling
optimistic. Consumer confidence now stands at a five-year high.
While optimism about the American economy is good
news, it’s important to remember world economies are like members of a family.
What happens to one country or region often has a significant influence on what
happens in the others.
She can bring
home the bacon and fry it up in a pan… From 1960 through 2011, the percentage of
households with children under the age of 18 and mom as the primary or sole breadwinner
increased from 11 to 40 percent. According to the Pew Research Center report,
‘Breadwinner Moms’ fall into two distinct groups: married moms who earn more
than their husbands (37 percent) and single mothers (63 percent). The earnings
gap between the two groups tends to be very large:
“The median total
family income of married mothers who earn more than their husbands was nearly
$80,000 in 2011, well above the national median of $57,100 for all families
with children, and nearly four times the $23,000 median for families led by a
single mother.”
It’s interesting to note an educational gap has been
developing between husbands and wives, as well. A growing proportion of married
women are better educated than their husbands. According to Pew Research, “the
share of couples in which the mother has attained a higher education than her
spouse has gone up from 7 percent in 1960 to 23 percent in 2011.” This probably
shouldn’t be a surprise since more women than men have been receiving college
degrees of all types – associates, bachelors, masters, and doctorates – every
year since 1982.
Perceptions about
women’s roles in both the workplace and the family appear to be changing, too.
According to another Pew report, almost three-fourths of American adults say
having more women in the workforce has been a change for the better. About 60
percent say family life is more satisfying when both spouses work and they
share responsibility for housework and child care.
Weekly Focus – Think
About It
"If we
become increasingly humble about how little we know, we may be more eager to
search."
--Sir John Templeton, Global investing pioneer
No comments:
Post a Comment