Was it a stutter
step or have markets lost their balance?
Anybody who knows
football can tell you a lot goes into every play. Strategy, practice, game
review, and preparation all affect outcomes, as do decisions and execution
during games. Many, many factors influence gains and losses on the field.
Similarly, numerous issues affect the performance of stock and bond markets – a
fact that became abundantly clear when pundits tried to explain last week’s market
downturn. Here are a few of the things which may have helped put investors on
the defensive last week:
·
Fears of a China
bubble:
According to Barron’s, a dip in the
nation’s manufacturing index stirred experts’ fears China may be experiencing a
credit bubble that is creating property and infrastructure bubbles. If this
proves true and the bubble bursts, the repercussions may be felt throughout
global markets.
·
Concern about
Federal Reserve tapering: The Fed has begun to pursue a less stimulative monetary
policy and that has some worried about growth, especially in emerging countries
which rely on foreign currency to finance their deficits, according to The Washington Post.
·
Anxiety about emerging
markets resilience: Giving
weight to concerns about the impact of changing Federal Reserve policy, currencies
in Argentina, Venezuela, South Africa, and Turkey lost value late last week. The New York Times said rising interest
rates may increase borrowing costs triggering painful readjustment periods in
some emerging markets.
·
Unease over
unemployment: Reuters
suggested stronger economic growth in the United States, Japan, and Europe
could camouflage issues related to youth unemployment and skills shortages.
·
Lack of
enthusiasm over mixed earnings: Fourth quarter earnings reports have been
roughly in line with the mixed results reported throughout 2013. Sixty-three
percent of companies’ earnings beat analysts’ expectations, 12 percent were in
line, and 25 percent came in lower than expected.
So, is this a
correction? Or, has the bull market concluded its run? You may as well ask
whether the Broncos or the Seahawks will win on Sunday. Nobody knows for sure.
how do you
define ‘big data?’ There
is little agreement about the definition of ‘Big Data.’ Broadly speaking, it is
a term that describes the storage and analysis of large and/or complex data
sets. According to the MIT Technology
Review, “There is unanimous agreement that big data is revolutionizing
commerce in the 21st century. When it comes to business, big data offers
unprecedented insight, improved decision-making, and untapped sources of
profit.” In other words, data – collected through rewards cards, social media
websites, industry research, and other sources – is helping companies better
understand their businesses and their customers.
Big data is
helping companies in diverse industries. The International Business Times
reported retailers, supermarkets, and pharmaceutical companies are collecting
thousands of gigabytes of consumer data in real time and through online data
mining in order to improve sales and marketing efforts. An article on Gizmag.com
said:
“Pattern
recognition software applied to patient records, clinical trials, medical
reports, and journals makes it possible for computers to be used as diagnostic
tools, comparing data to arrive at the best possible treatment plan… Fraud
detection, pre-trial research in legal cases, stock trading, and patient monitoring
are now handled by software after the arrival of big data.”
The Big Data revolution
also is likely to change the employment picture in the United States, according
to a report titled, The Future of
Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerization? The report covered
a study which was released by Oxford University last September and evaluated
about 700 different types of occupations in the United States. It found about
47 percent of jobs in the United States are at risk of being computerized
within the next two decades.
Occupations at
low risk of being computerized included
therapists
of different types, social workers, curators, anthropologists, and others.
Those at high risk included telemarketers, loan officers, payroll clerks, legal
secretaries, and (ironically) data entry technicians.
Weekly Focus – Think
About It
“Truth is like the sun. You can
shut it out for a time, but it ain't goin' away.”
--Elvis Presley, “The King of Rock
and Roll”
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